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Breaking into the planet's most popular museum in broad daylight, taking eight items of invaluable historical gems and disappearing into Paris traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for global fame and ensuing movie adaptations.

Specialists who study trends in international art crime, however, see the recent robbery at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the most recent in a series of quick-hit thefts focused more on the material value of precious stones or metals than the artifacts’ significance, perpetuating a trend that has appeared over the last decade in Germany, the UK and the US. The location, they propose, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“You may ask why criminals who want to steal expensive jewellery are entering a world-famous museum rather than a Cartier store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “The answer is simple: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is better protected.”

A spate of aggressive retail store thefts indicate that many outlets have strengthened their security in recent years, with armed guards on their premises and merchandise no longer kept on display overnight. Cultural institutions, on the other hand, look more exposed, in part because of the inherent factor of being accessible institutions in older structures, and also the current economic climate in many western countries.

“Since Covid, authorities across the globe have cut back on law enforcement and the culture sector,” said Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how at risk our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The theft of the items – including necklaces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the tiara of Empress Eugénie containing nearly 2,000 diamonds and a extremely expensive crown once owned by Napoleon III’s wife that the thieves left by the street on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the 1911 theft of the famous painting from the same museum, performed by the worker the thief.

Better points of reference may be the recent burglary of jewellery from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over €113m, the theft of a multi-million pound valuable object from Blenheim Palace the that year, the 2017 robbery of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a series of robberies of sports memorabilia from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as rapidly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to stay whole, experts say, the criminals would find it hard to find a buyer. “It's impossible to trade something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the legal marketplace”, commented an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They would be immediately recognised, especially given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the items. Even a private collector or an auction house would want to see paperwork establishing proper ownership before handling such remarkable pieces.”

In the past, museums were often hesitant to announce publicly about the loss of well-known art pieces and would stay silent out of shame. Now, as art thefts are more reported on, the storage and selling of stolen art is dangerous for any criminal.

“If you steal a Picasso, it has to remain intact or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a scheme to conceal it, perhaps by passing it around difficult criminal actors,” noted Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the risk of an accomplice informing authorities to cash in a reward.”

For similar reasons, an investigator said it was highly improbable that the robbery had been ordered. “Commissioned theft is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you acquire these, if you get caught, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your family.”

Modifying taken items by melting down or re-cutting does reduce the worth. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with significant danger because modern methods give gems a larger and lighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or barter the price down for a coverup.

Crucially, however, dismantling or re-cutting eliminates the evidence of the theft. “I suspect that the Louvre thieves will try to take the items to locations with diamond expertise like Israel, another nation or even as close as a city, and find someone to remove the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already raised questions about security measures at the institution, with a unauthorized state auditor report expected to be released soon pointing out “considerable” and “ongoing” delays in modernizing systems and noting that security cameras were missing in many rooms. But specialists say displaying precious items in older structures with a constant flow of visitors comes with dangers that are impossible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are much harder to protect,” said an art crime professor. “Many of them have large accessible windows that makes it easy for criminals to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you are unable to install them with secure windows.”

The most solid security systems for buildings should be conceptualised “like a fortress”, said Peter Stürmann. “It should include several layers to deter intruders.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with state-of-the-art external CCTV cameras or in-built seismic detectors that alert about a broken glass in real time, but old museums may be hesitant to uglify their appearance. Detection devices can be difficult to install to stuccoed ceilings. Sensors may also have to be disabled during the day as crowds walk through a museum.

The timing of the robbery, which occurred between 9.30am and 9.40am local time, was typical of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. It’s often when guards rotate and before the museum is crowded who actually act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new devices that can raise the alarm more rapidly and effectively, but it has also given robbers new tools with which to bypass protections. In Paris, the robbers reached the museum’s first-floor window with a mobile equipment and cut through a glass pane with a electric tool.

An author said the conversation in the country about the historic structure had primarily centered on visitor management in recent years, and less on security.

The museum has an in-house brigade of about fifty full-time firefighters, but their purpose is mainly to protect the artworks from blazes and flooding. “There is no quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all depends on political will and funding, and currently the nation lacks sufficient resources.”